The deeper question is: what is evaluation for? If it exists mainly to confirm compliance (i.e. to verify that a plan was executed as designed, that the Theory of Change held....) then adding foresight methods changes nothing. We will simply be anticipating the future in service of the same backward-looking logic and the same set of horizons. Always in "compliance mode." Before we ask how evaluation can get better at anticipating the future, we need to ask a prior question: are we willing to set evaluation free from the obligation to confirm the plan?
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Italy
Silva Ferretti
Freelance consultant
Posted on 13/04/2026
The deeper question is: what is evaluation for? If it exists mainly to confirm compliance (i.e. to verify that a plan was executed as designed, that the Theory of Change held....) then adding foresight methods changes nothing. We will simply be anticipating the future in service of the same backward-looking logic and the same set of horizons. Always in "compliance mode." Before we ask how evaluation can get better at anticipating the future, we need to ask a prior question: are we willing to set evaluation free from the obligation to confirm the plan?