RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed

The topic is very relevant, timely and thought-provoking. 

In the context of climate uncertainty and its implications for the use of evaluation findings, it is evident that retrospective evaluation is a weak predictor of future outcomes due to climate variability. Methodologically, static measurements are designed for relatively stable environments, and can no longer fit in the dynamic and volatile ecosystems we are experiencing today.

For example, in food security, the more we measure project success based on the yield increases, the more we risk overlooking critical factors such as soil depletion trends, climate shocks, and indigenous community mobility patterns, among others. As a result, findings may quickly become underutilised. It is therefore clear that yesterday’s solutions cannot remain valid for tomorrow’s problems.

Foresight Tools and Methods

Some foresight tools and methods I have encountered include Outcome Harvesting, the 3 Horizons Framework, systems mapping, scenario planning, horizon scanning, and trend analysis. These approaches are valuable because they capture uncertainty and expand thinking beyond linear outcomes, thereby supporting adaptability in programmes.

However, their application comes with challenges because they require time, skills, and facilitation capacity, which many evaluators may not yet possess. Additionally, some stakeholders perceive these approaches as less rigorous. Another constraint is that they are not often embedded in donor terms of reference, which discourages evaluators from applying them.

DAC Criteria through a Foresight Lens

Reinterpreting the DAC criteria through a foresight lens is important. For instance, we need to move from a static relevance to dynamic relevance. Traditionally, we ask whether an intervention was aligned at the design stage; however, we should also be asking whether it will remain relevant under future scenarios.

Similarly, sustainability is often framed as the continuation of benefits after programme completion. In today’s volatile context, this needs to shift toward assessing whether systems can adapt, absorb shocks, and transform. This includes examining resilience and adaptive capacity at both system and community levels.

Opportunities in Food Security, Environmental, and Agricultural Sectors

These sectors are inherently future-facing. In Kenya, since childhood, we were often reminded, “Huu ni uti wa mgongo wa uchumi”, meaning this is the backbone of our economy. Importantly, Indigenous knowledge systems already function as foresight systems.

There are significant opportunities to integrate foresight into areas such as agroecology, climate-resilient agriculture, pastoralist mobility systems, and early warning systems. Indigenous forecasting methods, such as interpreting weather patterns, seasonal cycles, animal behaviour, and land use patterns, offer valuable insights that can strengthen evaluation practice.

What Needs to Change to Integrate Foresight into Evaluation

To make foresight a regular part of evaluation, we need to strengthen skills in systems thinking, futures literacy, facilitation of uncertainty, and multidisciplinary approaches.

At the institutional level, there is a need for flexible terms of reference, adaptive and real-time evaluation designs, and learning-focused commissioning processes that allow for cumulative learning over time.

Overall, we need to shift from the narrow focus on accountability to a balanced learning and anticipation, supported by investments in digital data tools.

My conclusion

I would conclude by urging the adoption of the indigenous scenario work, that is, planning for multiple possible futures rather than assuming a single predictable path. This involves asking critical questions such as What might happen? What could change? What if things go differently?