Meta-Evaluation of Climate Mitigation Evaluations Issued by GEF Independent Evaluation Office

This study by the GEF IEO develops a program theory for evaluating climate change mitigation interventions, moving beyond output-based assessments to focus on market conditions enabling sustainable energy adoption. By analyzing mitigation evaluations, the Tokle and Uitto (2009) framework, and market transformation concepts, the study identifies key barriers preventing technology adoption. Case studies on energy efficiency in Thailand and district heating in Poland refine the framework to 17 barriers. A visualization tool using a traffic-light color scheme and an intervention mapping diagram were developed to aid evaluation, monitoring, and project design. The study highlights the need for further research to expand the framework’s applicability, particularly in renewable energy, and to develop standardized outcome indicators and barrier-strategy pairs for more effective climate mitigation evaluations.