1/2 A very useful exercise, and the 3H framework is indeed powerful! Well done for engaging with it! I’m not fully convinced, though, that a Theory of Change and measurable results really “belong” in Horizon 3. :-) The spirit of Three Horizons is not a gradual improvement trajectory. It helps us see when the world we live in (H1) is intrinsically faulty and calls for a strong shift rather than a better‑managed status quo. H3 is not a “nicer version of today” reached through a linear, incremental pathway. Its role is to name the tension between where we are now and an alternative, desirable future based on different assumptions and a different logic. It is about naming the gap and making the transformation evident, not about designing the pathway.
RE: Foresight Meets Reality: Using Three Horizons to build a Gender-Responsive, Human Rights-Based, and LNOB Results-Oriented Theory of Change
Italy
Silva Ferretti
Freelance consultant
Posted on 08/03/2026
1/2 A very useful exercise, and the 3H framework is indeed powerful! Well done for engaging with it!
I’m not fully convinced, though, that a Theory of Change and measurable results really “belong” in Horizon 3. :-)
The spirit of Three Horizons is not a gradual improvement trajectory. It helps us see when the world we live in (H1) is intrinsically faulty and calls for a strong shift rather than a better‑managed status quo. H3 is not a “nicer version of today” reached through a linear, incremental pathway. Its role is to name the tension between where we are now and an alternative, desirable future based on different assumptions and a different logic. It is about naming the gap and making the transformation evident, not about designing the pathway.