"For the first time, I have understood what ToC is about." — Participant, Mozambique training.
Introduction
Development is complex, uncertain, and rapidly evolving. Practitioners often focus on immediate problems and solutions, addressing urgent needs while missing the systemic drivers that shape long-term outcomes. Flipping a problem tree into a solution tree can generate ideas, but it often overlooks the critical pathways needed for transformative change. Frequently, gender equality, human rights-based approaches, and leaving no one behind (LNOB) principles are not fully integrated, and connections between Theory of Change (ToC) and measurable results remain unclear. Traditional Results-Based Management frameworks, while essential, often fall short in helping teams link short-term interventions to medium- and long-term systemic impact.
To address these challenges, I recently facilitated a high-level training for UN and senior government officials in Mozambique on reimagining results-based management to design coherent, inclusive, and adaptive United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Frameworks. The training explored how the Three Horizons framework can guide development from urgent needs to long-term, systemic transformation, embedding gender equality, human rights, and LNOB at every stage. Participants developed integrated ToC and Results Frameworks that map development pathways from immediate interventions to long-term transformational outcomes, including an intermediate Horizon 1.5 (H1.5) to address urgent priorities while advancing short- and long-term objectives. Emphasis was placed on translating foresight-informed ToCs into clear, measurable, and transformative results, demonstrating practical pathways for inclusive, future-ready development.
The Approach
The Three Horizons framework provides a powerful structure for designing ToCs by mapping actions and outcomes over time, linking immediate interventions to medium- and long-term transformational results. A critical component of this approach is explicitly articulating assumptions and risks at each horizon, while mainstreaming gender equality, human rights, and LNOB throughout the process.
| Horizon 1 (H1) – Current System / Status Quo | Analyze existing challenges, bottlenecks, and gaps in policies, practices, and systems. Identify which groups are currently marginalized or excluded and how current systems may perpetuate inequities. Clearly articulate assumptions about current practices and risks if systemic barriers remain unaddressed. |
| Horizon 1.5 (H1.5) – Urgent Needs | Prioritize critical interventions that address immediate gaps, stabilize programs, and protect vulnerable populations. Ensure all urgent actions are gender-responsive, rights-based, and inclusive. Document assumptions underpinning these interventions and potential risks if urgent needs are not adequately addressed. |
| Horizon 2 (H2) – Transition / Emerging Innovations | Identify and test pilot programs, adaptations, and innovations that move the system from current realities toward long-term transformation. Assess how these strategies strengthen gender equality, human rights, and LNOB, and ensure risks are mitigated. Capture assumptions about innovation effectiveness and potential barriers to scaling or sustainability. |
| Horizon 3 (H3) – Future-Ready / Transformative Outcomes | Define the long-term vision for a fully inclusive, human rights-based, and gender-transformative system aligned with SDGs. Clearly articulate assumptions about systemic change and identify risks that could hinder the achievement of these transformative outcomes. Ensure the pathway explicitly leaves no one behind. |
This approach ensures that results-based management and ToC are not just linear frameworks, but dynamic, foresight-informed tools that integrate short-term problem-solving, medium-term innovation, and long-term transformative goals while embedding human rights-based approaches, gender equality, and LNOB principles at every step.
Lessons from the Mozambique Training
©Amelia Tunzine/RCOMozambique
Several critical lessons emerged from the training, demonstrating the value of the Three Horizons framework in designing transformative, inclusive development results:
- Deep understanding of current realities (H1): Successful ToC design requires a thorough analysis of existing challenges, bottlenecks, and systemic issues, ensuring interventions target the root causes of problems.
- Stakeholder engagement and consensus-building: Engaging government, UN agencies, and relevant stakeholders is essential to define the problem, agree on priorities, and co-create pathways for change.
- Clarity on problem definition and assumptions: Understanding the sociocultural ad political dynamics that shape how problems are defined is critical, as these influence both the pathway to change and the assumptions underpinning the ToC.
- Iterative, reflective process: Developing a ToC is not a linear exercise or a “straightjacket” process; it requires continuous reflection, adaptation, and testing of assumptions across the horizons.
- Horizon-linked thinking: Applying H1–H1.5–H2–H3 helps teams structure interventions from urgent needs to long-term transformative outcomes, ensuring gender equality, human rights, and LNOB are embedded at every stage.
These lessons underscore the importance of combining foresight, participatory approaches, and iterative thinking to create inclusive, adaptive, and sustainable development pathways.
Why It Matters
In today’s rapidly evolving development landscape, emerging global challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, pandemics, and socio-political instability require approaches that are both responsive and forward-looking. Integrating the Three Horizons framework with Theory of Change (ToC), including H1.5 for urgent needs, transforms Results-Based Management into a strategic tool that balances immediate priorities with long-term systemic transformation.
This approach enables practitioners to:
- Anticipate and respond to emerging challenges while maintaining focus on long-term objectives
- Innovate responsibly through adaptive, foresight-informed strategies
- Translate complex visions into measurable, transformative results that are inclusive, gender-responsive, and rights-based
- Embed human rights, gender equality, and LNOB throughout all stages of planning and implementation
For practitioners and policy makers driving sustainable, transformative development, this approach offers a practical pathway to move from urgent interventions to long-term systemic change, ensuring initiatives are resilient, adaptive, and future-ready amid evolving global challenges.