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RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed

Ines Freier

Germany

Ines Freier

Senior consultant for NRM and biodiversity, Green economy

consultant

Posted on 13/04/2026

The paper offers  one option for evaluating new speculative ventures which are not under control of the public. Using foresight methods instead of past performance can also backfire.

 I recently evaluated blended finance funds, the performance of the funds was not as expected due to a set of factors driven from research on management and business development like know your customer. Our subject experts always tried to developed new scenarios for the future under which the facilities would work better. Foresight tools are applied within the existing evaluation system based on evaluation departments or institutions and methods which in most cases lack hard technical / subject-related  skills and resources improve the evaluation system. Alternatives to the current evaluation system should be explored like participatory process for policy formulation and implementation like stakeholder groups in specific policy areas providing  feedback on specific policies. This way future oriented  reflexive and learning systems are created using feedback loops. Here future programming is  included by stakeholders. Examples are the Brazilian policies for family agriculture or nutrition which are shaped by stakeholder commissions at all levels.