Food security, environmental sustainability, and agricultural development programmes across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania are increasingly operating within conditions defined by systemic uncertainty. Climate variability—manifested through recurrent droughts and erratic rainfall—alongside land degradation, demographic pressures, and evolving geopolitical dynamics, has moved from being a peripheral concern to a central determinant of programme performance.
Despite this evolving context, evaluation practices in these sectors remain predominantly retrospective. They continue to emphasize accountability against fixed, pre-defined objectives, often established under assumptions that no longer hold. This creates a significant temporal misalignment:
Programme design is based on initial conditions and assumptions
Evaluation assesses outcomes against those original assumptions
Decision-making occurs in a context that has fundamentally shifted
This disconnect has tangible implications. For instance:
A food security initiative designed under assumptions of stable rainfall may be evaluated following a drought, yet still judged against its original targets
Agro-processing investments are assessed based on production outputs, without adequately accounting for disruptions in supply chains or raw material availability
As a result, evaluation findings may accurately describe past performance but offer limited value for informing future decisions in dynamic environments.
At the same time, leading organizations such as World Food Programme, Food and Agriculture Organization, and CGIAR are increasingly incorporating foresight-oriented approaches, particularly within resilience-building and anticipatory action frameworks.
However, across East Africa:
Evaluation professionals often lack formal exposure to foresight methodologies
Foresight remains insufficiently embedded in evaluation design processes
Practical tools and integration frameworks are still underdeveloped
This discussion is intended to address these gaps by exploring how foresight can be systematically integrated into evaluation practice.
Week 1: Understanding the Limitations of Retrospective Evaluation
Focus
To establish a foundational understanding of why conventional evaluation approaches are inadequate in volatile and rapidly changing environments.
East African Perspective
Within the region, retrospective evaluations frequently:
Validate known failures, such as crop losses or food shortages
Provide limited influence on future programme design and adaptation
Illustrative Examples
Drought response initiatives in Ethiopia assessed only after crisis escalation
Fertilizer subsidy programmes evaluated without incorporating climate variability
Food distribution systems responding reactively to shortages rather than anticipating them
Core Insight
Retrospective evaluation effectively answers:
“To what extent were planned objectives achieved?”
However, it fails to address the more critical question:
“Were the original assumptions and plans still valid under changing conditions?”
Discussion Emphasis
The impact of climate shocks on the relevance of past-based evaluations
The declining utility of evaluation findings over time
The disconnect between evaluation outputs and real-time decision-making needs
Week 2: Transformative Foresight in Agricultural and Food Systems
Focus
To examine how foresight approaches enable transformational change rather than incremental improvements.
East African Perspective
Agricultural systems across the region are undergoing structural transitions characterized by:
A shift from subsistence farming toward market-oriented production
Increased exposure to climate-related risks
Growth of agro-processing and value-added industries
Application of Foresight
Foresight methodologies can support:
Anticipation of changes in crop suitability due to evolving climate conditions
Identification of future food demand patterns driven by urbanization and population growth
Design of resilient agro-processing and supply chain systems
Illustrative Example
Forecasting fluctuations in maize production linked to rainfall variability
Promoting alternative crops such as sorghum and millet based on future climate projections
Week 3: Advancing Toward a Transformative Evaluation Paradigm
Focus
To explore how integrating foresight into evaluation can create a more adaptive, future-oriented paradigm.
East African Perspective
Evaluation systems must evolve to address:
Complex, interrelated risks (climatic, economic, and political)
The need for long-term resilience rather than short-term performance metrics
Implications for Evaluation Criteria
Applying a foresight perspective reshapes traditional evaluation dimensions:
Relevance Moves beyond alignment with past needs toward alignment with anticipated future risks and opportunities
Sustainability Extends beyond continuity after funding to include resilience under future shocks and uncertainties
Effectiveness Expands from measuring output delivery to assessing adaptability and responsiveness to change
Illustrative Example
In a food processing facility:
Traditional evaluation focuses on production volumes achieved
Foresight-informed evaluation assesses the system’s capacity to sustain operations amid fluctuations in raw material supply
Core Insight
Evaluation evolves into:
A mechanism for adaptive management and strategic learning, rather than solely a tool for accountability
Week 4: Operationalizing Foresight within Evaluation Practice
Focus
To translate conceptual frameworks into practical tools and methodologies applicable in real-world contexts.
Key Tools and Their Application in East Africa
1. Horizon Scanning
Systematic monitoring of emerging trends, including climate patterns, market dynamics, and policy changes
Example: Early detection of drought risks or food price volatility
2. Scenario Planning
Development of multiple plausible future scenarios, such as:
Foundational: Underlying beliefs and policy narratives
Regional Application Areas
Foresight-informed evaluation can be applied to:
Irrigation and water management projects
Agro-processing investments
Food distribution and logistics systems
Discussion Objectives (Contextualized)
Enhance understanding of foresight methodologies within evaluation practice
Strengthen the assessment of resilience, sustainability, and long-term impact
Facilitate knowledge exchange based on regional experiences in climate adaptation and food systems
Identify practical and resource-efficient entry points for integrating foresight into evaluation
Guiding Questions (East Africa Focus)
In what contexts have retrospective evaluations failed to capture evolving climate or market realities?
What early warning indicators (climatic, supply-related, or price-based) could enhance evaluation relevance?
How might foresight approaches reshape the evaluation of:
Food security programmes
Agricultural investments
Agro-processing performance
What institutional barriers exist (capacity, data systems, organizational culture)?
How can foresight be integrated into evaluation without significant resource burdens?
Conclusion
Within East Africa, integrating foresight into evaluation is no longer optional—it is a practical necessity.
In sectors defined by uncertainty:
Food security strategies cannot depend on static assumptions
Agricultural investments must anticipate variability and disruption
Evaluation must actively inform future-oriented decision-making rather than merely document past outcomes
The future effectiveness of evaluation in Ethiopia and across East Africa will depend on its capacity to guide decisions proactively—anticipating challenges before they materialize, rather than reacting after the fact.
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Ethiopia
Hailu Negu Bedhane
cementing engineer
Ethiopian electric power
Posted on 24/04/2026
Background and Rationale (East African Context)
Food security, environmental sustainability, and agricultural development programmes across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania are increasingly operating within conditions defined by systemic uncertainty. Climate variability—manifested through recurrent droughts and erratic rainfall—alongside land degradation, demographic pressures, and evolving geopolitical dynamics, has moved from being a peripheral concern to a central determinant of programme performance.
Despite this evolving context, evaluation practices in these sectors remain predominantly retrospective. They continue to emphasize accountability against fixed, pre-defined objectives, often established under assumptions that no longer hold. This creates a significant temporal misalignment:
This disconnect has tangible implications. For instance:
As a result, evaluation findings may accurately describe past performance but offer limited value for informing future decisions in dynamic environments.
At the same time, leading organizations such as World Food Programme, Food and Agriculture Organization, and CGIAR are increasingly incorporating foresight-oriented approaches, particularly within resilience-building and anticipatory action frameworks.
However, across East Africa:
This discussion is intended to address these gaps by exploring how foresight can be systematically integrated into evaluation practice.
Week 1: Understanding the Limitations of Retrospective Evaluation
Focus
To establish a foundational understanding of why conventional evaluation approaches are inadequate in volatile and rapidly changing environments.
East African Perspective
Within the region, retrospective evaluations frequently:
Illustrative Examples
Core Insight
Retrospective evaluation effectively answers:
“To what extent were planned objectives achieved?”
However, it fails to address the more critical question:
“Were the original assumptions and plans still valid under changing conditions?”
Discussion Emphasis
Week 2: Transformative Foresight in Agricultural and Food Systems
Focus
To examine how foresight approaches enable transformational change rather than incremental improvements.
East African Perspective
Agricultural systems across the region are undergoing structural transitions characterized by:
Application of Foresight
Foresight methodologies can support:
Illustrative Example
Week 3: Advancing Toward a Transformative Evaluation Paradigm
Focus
To explore how integrating foresight into evaluation can create a more adaptive, future-oriented paradigm.
East African Perspective
Evaluation systems must evolve to address:
Implications for Evaluation Criteria
Applying a foresight perspective reshapes traditional evaluation dimensions:
Moves beyond alignment with past needs toward alignment with anticipated future risks and opportunities
Extends beyond continuity after funding to include resilience under future shocks and uncertainties
Expands from measuring output delivery to assessing adaptability and responsiveness to change
Illustrative Example
In a food processing facility:
Core Insight
Evaluation evolves into:
A mechanism for adaptive management and strategic learning, rather than solely a tool for accountability
Week 4: Operationalizing Foresight within Evaluation Practice
Focus
To translate conceptual frameworks into practical tools and methodologies applicable in real-world contexts.
Key Tools and Their Application in East Africa
1. Horizon Scanning
Systematic monitoring of emerging trends, including climate patterns, market dynamics, and policy changes
2. Scenario Planning
Development of multiple plausible future scenarios, such as:
3. Three Horizons Framework
4. Causal Layered Analysis
Multi-level examination of challenges:
Regional Application Areas
Foresight-informed evaluation can be applied to:
Discussion Objectives (Contextualized)
Guiding Questions (East Africa Focus)
Conclusion
Within East Africa, integrating foresight into evaluation is no longer optional—it is a practical necessity.
In sectors defined by uncertainty:
The future effectiveness of evaluation in Ethiopia and across East Africa will depend on its capacity to guide decisions proactively—anticipating challenges before they materialize, rather than reacting after the fact.