Silva, this is a provocation worth examining throughout this discussion, and I think it contributes something that we can continue to unpack in the coming weeks. You are right that foresight tools can simply be recruited into the service of compliance, i.e., anticipating futures to confirm a Theory of Change rather than genuinely interrogating it. That would be a sophisticated version of the same problem.
The prior question you raise “what is evaluation for?” is one I believe this community needs to grapple with more directly. My own sense is that the shift from hindsight to foresight is not just technical, as it also requires a different relationship between evaluators, commissioners, and the programmes being evaluated. If evaluation is purely confirmatory, then foresight becomes window dressing. But if there is institutional appetite for evaluation as genuine exploration, then foresight tools, particularly when used participatorily as you describe, can open up the kind of reflective space that challenges rather than reinforces prevailing assumptions. Keep raising these questions Silva!
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Kenya
Steven Lynn Lichty
Managing Partner
REAL Consulting Group
Posted on 27/03/2026
Silva, this is a provocation worth examining throughout this discussion, and I think it contributes something that we can continue to unpack in the coming weeks. You are right that foresight tools can simply be recruited into the service of compliance, i.e., anticipating futures to confirm a Theory of Change rather than genuinely interrogating it. That would be a sophisticated version of the same problem.
The prior question you raise “what is evaluation for?” is one I believe this community needs to grapple with more directly. My own sense is that the shift from hindsight to foresight is not just technical, as it also requires a different relationship between evaluators, commissioners, and the programmes being evaluated. If evaluation is purely confirmatory, then foresight becomes window dressing. But if there is institutional appetite for evaluation as genuine exploration, then foresight tools, particularly when used participatorily as you describe, can open up the kind of reflective space that challenges rather than reinforces prevailing assumptions. Keep raising these questions Silva!