Emmanuel, the framing you offer, moving from judging the past to enabling improvement for the future, captures the spirit of what forward-looking evaluation aspires to be. And the question you end with is exactly the right one to keep asking throughout this discussion.
One example that comes to mind is WFP's Anticipatory Action work, where evaluation has been used not only to assess past performance but to refine the trigger systems and scenario models that activate pre-emptive responses before crises fully unfold. That strikes me as a case where evaluation genuinely shaped future action rather than simply recording past performance. But I think the deeper insight in your contribution is about orientation and intent…a forward-looking evaluation can be conducted with largely conventional methods, if the questions it asks and the way findings are framed consistently point toward adaptation and improvement rather than verdict. That cultural shift may be as important as any methodological innovation. What has enabled that orientation in the contexts where you have seen it work?
I just completed a large foresight-informed evaluation for UNICEF, but it is too early to determine what difference it may make. Ask me in 2028!
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Kenya
Steven Lynn Lichty
Managing Partner
REAL Consulting Group
Posted on 27/03/2026
Emmanuel, the framing you offer, moving from judging the past to enabling improvement for the future, captures the spirit of what forward-looking evaluation aspires to be. And the question you end with is exactly the right one to keep asking throughout this discussion.
One example that comes to mind is WFP's Anticipatory Action work, where evaluation has been used not only to assess past performance but to refine the trigger systems and scenario models that activate pre-emptive responses before crises fully unfold. That strikes me as a case where evaluation genuinely shaped future action rather than simply recording past performance. But I think the deeper insight in your contribution is about orientation and intent…a forward-looking evaluation can be conducted with largely conventional methods, if the questions it asks and the way findings are framed consistently point toward adaptation and improvement rather than verdict. That cultural shift may be as important as any methodological innovation. What has enabled that orientation in the contexts where you have seen it work?
I just completed a large foresight-informed evaluation for UNICEF, but it is too early to determine what difference it may make. Ask me in 2028!