If this weeks question is "If evaluation is to contribute to transformation, what exactly must change first…our methods, our criteria, our institutions, our underlying mindset, or something else?" I will repeat my point below...there is a potentially serious misalignment between the predictive nature of a theory of change as used by evaluators and the need for preparedness in a very uncertain world, A singular view of the future versus a plural view of the futures
[By the way, the display structure for this kind of dialogue should be branching, not a single line]
And please lets not toss the word "transformational" around too lightly. Putin and Trump and other despots are all keen on transformation of one kind or another. What about incremental improvements, or perhaps even just surviving, as an objective ? :-) Inflation take many forms, including changes in our vocabulary. e.g In the past we just had "details", but now we have "granularity" Wow....things really are getting better...or are they?
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
United Kingdom
Rick Davies
Evaluation Consultant
Posted on 01/04/2026
If this weeks question is "If evaluation is to contribute to transformation, what exactly must change first…our methods, our criteria, our institutions, our underlying mindset, or something else?" I will repeat my point below...there is a potentially serious misalignment between the predictive nature of a theory of change as used by evaluators and the need for preparedness in a very uncertain world, A singular view of the future versus a plural view of the futures
[By the way, the display structure for this kind of dialogue should be branching, not a single line]
And please lets not toss the word "transformational" around too lightly. Putin and Trump and other despots are all keen on transformation of one kind or another. What about incremental improvements, or perhaps even just surviving, as an objective ? :-) Inflation take many forms, including changes in our vocabulary. e.g In the past we just had "details", but now we have "granularity" Wow....things really are getting better...or are they?