For Week 3, I’d like to introduce the article Fusing foresight and futures thinking for a new transformative evaluation paradigm by Rose Thompson Coon, Katri Vataja, and Pinja Parkkonen (attached below).
Their article argues that if evaluation is meant to contribute to transformation in an uncertain and complex world, it cannot remain focused mainly on assessing past performance. Instead, it needs to become more future-focused, more dynamic, and more able to engage multiple possible futures.
What makes this article especially useful for our discussion is that it does not stay at the level of theory. Using a case from Sitra in Finland, the authors show how foresight methods such as Horizon Scanning and a modified Delphi process can be integrated into evaluation to validate current strategic choices, generate future programming options, deepen learning about complexity, and strengthen strategic decision-making. They also argue that this shift is not only methodological. It requires a broader rethinking of evaluation’s purpose, including questions of power, participation, and whose futures are being imagined and prioritized.
This article offers a practical bridge between futures thinking and transformative evaluation. It helps move the conversation from “Why should evaluation become more future-informed?” to “What might this actually look like in practice?”
It also raises an important challenge for all of us. If evaluation is to help shape preferred futures, how should it address questions of power, participation, and whose future is being defined?
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Kenya
Steven Lynn Lichty
Managing Partner
REAL Consulting Group
Posted on 06/04/2026
Week Three Introduction
For Week 3, I’d like to introduce the article Fusing foresight and futures thinking for a new transformative evaluation paradigm by Rose Thompson Coon, Katri Vataja, and Pinja Parkkonen (attached below).
Their article argues that if evaluation is meant to contribute to transformation in an uncertain and complex world, it cannot remain focused mainly on assessing past performance. Instead, it needs to become more future-focused, more dynamic, and more able to engage multiple possible futures.
What makes this article especially useful for our discussion is that it does not stay at the level of theory. Using a case from Sitra in Finland, the authors show how foresight methods such as Horizon Scanning and a modified Delphi process can be integrated into evaluation to validate current strategic choices, generate future programming options, deepen learning about complexity, and strengthen strategic decision-making. They also argue that this shift is not only methodological. It requires a broader rethinking of evaluation’s purpose, including questions of power, participation, and whose futures are being imagined and prioritized.
This article offers a practical bridge between futures thinking and transformative evaluation. It helps move the conversation from “Why should evaluation become more future-informed?” to “What might this actually look like in practice?”
It also raises an important challenge for all of us. If evaluation is to help shape preferred futures, how should it address questions of power, participation, and whose future is being defined?