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RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed

Steven Lynn Lichty

Kenya

Steven Lynn Lichty

Managing Partner

REAL Consulting Group

Posted on 27/04/2026

Thanks Gana, this is a strong framing of why foresight-informed evaluation is becoming essential rather than optional. I especially appreciate the emphasis on systems...evaluations often over-focus on project performance while under-examining the institutional, political, ecological, and relational conditions that determine whether results can endure.

The proposed reframing of OECD-DAC criteria is particularly useful. Thinking of relevance as “future fit,” sustainability as “resilience under shocks,” and impact as “contribution to long-term system transformation” helps shift evaluation from compliance and accountability toward strategic learning and preparedness.

For food systems, climate resilience, agriculture, and governance, this feels especially urgent. The key question is no longer only “Did the intervention work?” but “Under what future conditions could it continue to work, adapt, or scale?” That is where foresight can significantly deepen the evaluative function.