Expédit, thank you for this thoughtful reflection. And I have to say, your mention of Benin brought back a real blast from the past for me...Benin was the first African country I worked in back in 1997. I was later in Parakou in 1998, and I still have very fond memories of that time.
Your point about real-time data feels especially important. In many evaluation systems, we still depend too heavily on delayed evidence, even when the policy environment is moving quickly. But I also appreciate your caution that tools such as risk registers, adaptive loops, strategic questioning, and scenario planning are not the same as professional foresight practice. They can support foresight, but they do not replace the deeper work of interpreting weak signals, surfacing assumptions, exploring alternative futures, and helping decision-makers act under uncertainty.
I also strongly agree with your emphasis on shared ownership. In a transforming policy evaluation system, foresight-informed evaluation will only be useful if it is not imposed as an external technical exercise, but co-owned from design through implementation. That is what gives the process legitimacy, relevance, and the possibility of real uptake.
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Kenya
Steven Lynn Lichty
Managing Partner
REAL Consulting Group
Posted on 29/04/2026
Expédit, thank you for this thoughtful reflection. And I have to say, your mention of Benin brought back a real blast from the past for me...Benin was the first African country I worked in back in 1997. I was later in Parakou in 1998, and I still have very fond memories of that time.
Your point about real-time data feels especially important. In many evaluation systems, we still depend too heavily on delayed evidence, even when the policy environment is moving quickly. But I also appreciate your caution that tools such as risk registers, adaptive loops, strategic questioning, and scenario planning are not the same as professional foresight practice. They can support foresight, but they do not replace the deeper work of interpreting weak signals, surfacing assumptions, exploring alternative futures, and helping decision-makers act under uncertainty.
I also strongly agree with your emphasis on shared ownership. In a transforming policy evaluation system, foresight-informed evaluation will only be useful if it is not imposed as an external technical exercise, but co-owned from design through implementation. That is what gives the process legitimacy, relevance, and the possibility of real uptake.