Thanks, Ismael. I strongly agree with your central point that evaluation needs to become more of a forward-looking decision-making tool, not only a mechanism for judging past performance. Hindsight remains essential, but it is not sufficient when programmes are operating in systems shaped by climate volatility, political uncertainty, technological change, and shifting community needs.
Your examples from agriculture and water management are especially relevant. In those sectors, historical performance data can tell us what has happened, but climate projections, scenario planning, and real-time monitoring help us ask a more strategic question like what is likely to remain viable under different future conditions?
I also appreciate your link to adaptive and developmental evaluation. For me, this is where foresight and evaluation become mutually reinforcing. Foresight helps identify emerging risks, assumptions, and alternative pathways, while adaptive evaluation helps programmes learn and adjust as those futures begin to unfold. The challenge is to ensure that predictive analytics and real-time data do not become purely technical exercises, but are combined with participatory sense-making, local knowledge, and professional judgement. That is what turns information into useful decisions.
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Kenya
Steven Lynn Lichty
Managing Partner
REAL Consulting Group
Posted on 29/04/2026
Thanks, Ismael. I strongly agree with your central point that evaluation needs to become more of a forward-looking decision-making tool, not only a mechanism for judging past performance. Hindsight remains essential, but it is not sufficient when programmes are operating in systems shaped by climate volatility, political uncertainty, technological change, and shifting community needs.
Your examples from agriculture and water management are especially relevant. In those sectors, historical performance data can tell us what has happened, but climate projections, scenario planning, and real-time monitoring help us ask a more strategic question like what is likely to remain viable under different future conditions?
I also appreciate your link to adaptive and developmental evaluation. For me, this is where foresight and evaluation become mutually reinforcing. Foresight helps identify emerging risks, assumptions, and alternative pathways, while adaptive evaluation helps programmes learn and adjust as those futures begin to unfold. The challenge is to ensure that predictive analytics and real-time data do not become purely technical exercises, but are combined with participatory sense-making, local knowledge, and professional judgement. That is what turns information into useful decisions.