Afrihealth Optonet Association (AHOA) - CSOs Network
Posted on 30/03/2026
FROM HINDSIGHT TO FORESIGHT: EXPERIENCE AT AFRIHEALTH OPTONET ASSOCIATION
by Dr. Uzodinma Adirieje
From hindsight to foresight, our experience at Afrihealth Optonet Association (AHOA) demonstrates that evaluation is most valuable when it moves beyond retrospective accountability to actively shaping future decisions under uncertainty. Three practical insights stand out.
Embed adaptive learning loops into programme design:
In Afrihealth’s health systems and climate-linked interventions, periodic reviews were not treated as endline exercises but as real-time checkpoints. Evaluators facilitated rapid feedback cycles - combining routine data, beneficiary insights, and contextual signals (e.g., policy shifts, climate events like COP29 Baku) - to inform mid-course corrections. This approach ensures programmes remain relevant even as conditions change.
Integrate mixed-methods evidence for anticipatory analysis:
Quantitative indicators alone often lag behind emerging realities. Afrihealth’s evaluations paired service delivery data with qualitative intelligence from communities and frontline workers. For example, shifts in health-seeking behaviour during economic stress were detected early through interviews and focus groups, enabling proactive adjustments in outreach and resource allocation.
Align evaluation questions with decision horizons:
Rather than asking only “what worked,” Afrihealth reframed inquiries toward “what is likely to work next, for whom, and under what conditions.” Scenario-building and contribution analysis were used to explore plausible futures, particularly in programmes intersecting with climate variability and public health risks. This made findings directly usable for strategic planning, not just reporting.
Stakeholder co-creation:
By engaging policymakers, implementers, and communities in defining evaluation priorities, Afrihealth ensured that findings addressed real decision needs. This strengthened ownership and increased the likelihood that recommendations were acted upon.
Similarly, optional readings in developmental evaluation and adaptive management further reinforce these practices, emphasising flexibility, systems thinking, and learning-oriented accountability.
This way, evaluators can enhance relevance in uncertain contexts by institutionalising real-time learning, triangulating diverse evidence, and orienting evaluations toward future-facing decisions.
Dr. Uzodinma Adirieje is a former National President of the Nigerian Association of Evaluators (NAE). He is a seasoned evaluator, health economist, and civil society leader who was the co-consultant to drafting Nigeria’s National M&E Policy. He led SDG3 evaluation synthesis, participated in national SDG 3 and SDG 4 evaluations, and provided M&E training and mentorship, advancing evidence-based, forward-looking development practice.
RE: From Hindsight to Foresight: How Evaluation Can Become Future-Informed
Nigeria
Dr. Uzodinma Akujekwe Adirieje
CEO
Afrihealth Optonet Association (AHOA) - CSOs Network
Posted on 30/03/2026
FROM HINDSIGHT TO FORESIGHT: EXPERIENCE AT AFRIHEALTH OPTONET ASSOCIATION
by Dr. Uzodinma Adirieje
From hindsight to foresight, our experience at Afrihealth Optonet Association (AHOA) demonstrates that evaluation is most valuable when it moves beyond retrospective accountability to actively shaping future decisions under uncertainty. Three practical insights stand out.
Embed adaptive learning loops into programme design:
In Afrihealth’s health systems and climate-linked interventions, periodic reviews were not treated as endline exercises but as real-time checkpoints. Evaluators facilitated rapid feedback cycles - combining routine data, beneficiary insights, and contextual signals (e.g., policy shifts, climate events like COP29 Baku) - to inform mid-course corrections. This approach ensures programmes remain relevant even as conditions change.
Integrate mixed-methods evidence for anticipatory analysis:
Quantitative indicators alone often lag behind emerging realities. Afrihealth’s evaluations paired service delivery data with qualitative intelligence from communities and frontline workers. For example, shifts in health-seeking behaviour during economic stress were detected early through interviews and focus groups, enabling proactive adjustments in outreach and resource allocation.
Align evaluation questions with decision horizons:
Rather than asking only “what worked,” Afrihealth reframed inquiries toward “what is likely to work next, for whom, and under what conditions.” Scenario-building and contribution analysis were used to explore plausible futures, particularly in programmes intersecting with climate variability and public health risks. This made findings directly usable for strategic planning, not just reporting.
Stakeholder co-creation:
By engaging policymakers, implementers, and communities in defining evaluation priorities, Afrihealth ensured that findings addressed real decision needs. This strengthened ownership and increased the likelihood that recommendations were acted upon.
Similarly, optional readings in developmental evaluation and adaptive management further reinforce these practices, emphasising flexibility, systems thinking, and learning-oriented accountability.
This way, evaluators can enhance relevance in uncertain contexts by institutionalising real-time learning, triangulating diverse evidence, and orienting evaluations toward future-facing decisions.
Dr. Uzodinma Adirieje is a former National President of the Nigerian Association of Evaluators (NAE). He is a seasoned evaluator, health economist, and civil society leader who was the co-consultant to drafting Nigeria’s National M&E Policy. He led SDG3 evaluation synthesis, participated in national SDG 3 and SDG 4 evaluations, and provided M&E training and mentorship, advancing evidence-based, forward-looking development practice.